Expanding the sector : growth targets and student numbers

This is the fourth research briefing in the Joining the Dots series for 2011. This briefing follows on the themes and questions raised in the first two Joining the Dots research briefings for 2011 - 'Student Demand' (Edwards, 2011b) and 'The Practicalities of Growth' (Edwards, 2011a). The briefing examines the expansion of Australia's higher education sector and how this might affect student numbers. The policy for expansion of the higher education system in Australia (the foundation of which is a target of 40 per cent of 25 to 34 year olds in Australia holding a bachelor degree or above by 2025) was announced by then Minister for Education Julia Gillard in early 2009 (Australian Government, 2009). In the two years since this announcement, only a few detailed analyses have been undertaken to identify the actual commencement and completion numbers needed to meet this target. This briefing outlines the findings of this work and matches these to budget forecasting undertaken by the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR).